Wednesday, September 17, 2008

By the way, did you know that we may well be on the verge of a second Great Depression?

First of all: if you are like me and tend not to understand anything about the economy, you owe it to yourself as a citizen, but more importantly as a voter in the upcoming presidential election, and even more importantly as someone who can help inform undecided voters (a constituency that J has often remarked that she doesn't "get," and I agree that it's one of life's great mysteries, like how come anyone likes this person?), to listen to today's highly informative episode of Fresh Air, hosted by Terri Gross.

Warning! In addition to being highly informative, this listening experience exposes to the listener the cynicism, corruption and incompetence that has caused the shocking shockwave of economic strife, Sturm und Drang and the like that has befallen the United States of America. And in this respect, it's pretty infuriating. But, it's the good kind of infuriating, wherein you finally feel like you have a basic sense of what the fuck is going on with Ye Grande Olde Economie, thanks to the success of decades of Grand Old Party ideological warfare. This is the ultimate consequence of the Reagan Revolution, and you got what you wanted, America! Assholes....

But anyway, subject yourself to this unusually informative radio program, and you'll come away armed with the kind of terrifying knowledge that energizes you to spread the word, or perhaps to spread your wings and fly, or perhaps simply to start bar fights. Not surprisingly, you'll also be equipped with a convincing yet subtle set of basic arguments as to why anybody who cares at all about the economy had better get off her ass and vote for Barack Obama.*

As if the fact that no less formidable paragon of bleeding-heart Marxism than Alan Greenspan recently said that the country "can't afford" John McCain's economic platform isn't all the proof we needed? Speaking of which, enjoy this simple but eloquent cartoon, which came to my attention through the blog of the, erm, festively monikered Barack OBlogger:


(By the way, I've discovered that there are a number of political cartoons on the Web site of the Ventura County Star that are after my own bleeding heart in a sort of simple, satisfying old-school way. The cartoonist is Steve Greenberg.)

Terri's guest is the very lively and lucid Michael Greenberger, a professor of law at the University of Maryland, and the former Director of the Division of Trading and Markets at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). In which capacity "he was responsible for supervising exchange traded futures and derivatives" (michaelgreenberger.com). What this means is that he knows lots and lots about the shady, irresponsible business practices that is causing the economy to tank, and he describes it from the perspective of a regulator. And from that perspective, things don't look good. (I wonder which perspective John McCain is viewing it from?)

Turns out the Republican Party economic ideology of deregulating everything and its mother, as practiced and expanded continually during all GOP presidencies since Reagan, and which McCain fully and ernestly intends to continue, has profoundly fucked the country. Shadiest of all has been the Bush/Cheney administration, which has been eager at every turn to run up larger and larger and larger deficits, and which espouses explicitly (and, at times, furtively) a policy of opacity: in other words, the administration has clamored, maneuvered, lied and used subterfuge at every opportunity to hide from the American people the true state of the country's finances, as well as the inevitable consequences of their irresponsible behavior with respect to the bottom line of an average American household.

For example: did you know that Cheney/Bush, in attempt to hide the yearly deficit expenses of the Iraq War -- which according to The Washington Post is certain to exceed $3 trillion --, tried to keep these expenses off the books? Specifically off of Congress's yearly report to the American taxpayer of spending and deficits. Fortunately, that plan was thwarted by Congress. And sure enough, the Bush Administration also wanted to keep the Federal Reserve's $200 billion taxpayer-funded bail-out of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac off the books. The idea, you see, is that if that menacing figure of $200 billion -- which is being supplied out of the pockets of the taxpayers -- is prevented from appearing on the books, then the taxpayers wouldn't have to go through the psychological turmoil of knowing that it is indeed they who are strapping to their backs the burden of this awesome sum. Thankfully, Congress again told Cheney/Bush: "Fuck off."

And now, here's something that's sure to put an even bigger bounce in your taxpaying step. In today's Fresh Air interview, Greenberger explains that the Fed's $85 billion loan to bail out insurance giant AIG is backed up by -- that is to say, it uses as collateral -- AIG's considerable assets. In the Fed's public statements, it has used this fact as a means by which to reassure the US taxpayer that he won't have to shoulder this burden.

But wait, what do AIG's 'assets' consist of, exactly? The assets that are being used to back up the US Government's $85 billion loan? Why, AIG's assets consist of the insurance policies of its customers. Bet that makes holders of AIG policies feel cozy and warm. Or perhaps, a bit toasty.

Now, these policies are for the most part held not by AIG itself, but by smaller, subsidiary companies under AIG's umbrella. Wow. So, what does that mean, that the risk is spread around a lot or something? I'm going to answer no, even though I don't really understand my own question (you have to forgive me, because I'm of necessity reconstructing Greenberger's
comments from memory, as the Web version of the show to which I have provided a hyperlink will not begin functioning until later in the day on which I'm typing these words).

Turns out that AIG, like apparently everyone else, held a lot of subprime mortgage-backed securities. Remember: this means that it invested a significant percentage of the life insurance policies of its customers in those sketchy-ass subprime mortgage loans. So, when the housing sector tanked -- as it would do inevitably, given that the sector was skyrocketing exclusively due to incompetent oversight and lack of governmental regulation (of which, if you want more, vote for John McCain, who's always been in favor of more and more DE-regulation and shows no sign of changing tack in any sense other than rhetorically) -- so AIG's fortunes tanked.

But here's what's even more sinister: Greenberger describes an additional reason for AIG's southward turn: credit-default swaps. Credit-default swaps are a kind of insurance policy against defaults on loans, particularly risky loans (like subprime mortgages, etc.). If that doesn't make sense, and I'm sure it doesn't, just listen to Greenberger talking to Terri Gross, and it will become clear. So: anyway, despite occasional clamors from responsible people, the federal government has made it its policy to exercise virtually no regulation and no oversight with respect to credit-default swaps, or CDS. Therefore, there is zero obligation of transparency on the part of the entities involved with these transactions.

AIG has made a regular and frequent part of its business to issue CDS, a practice that is apparently unusual for insurance companies; for an insurance company to make such risky investments would be unthinkable in an environment with the appropriate oversight, transparency and regulation. Especially since oftentimes, if not in the majority of instances, the buyers of these swaps did so to protect against the risk of a default or bankruptcy on subprime mortgages!

This unregulated, mysterious CDS market is several times the size of the stock market!

Wow. If McCain manages to fucking win this election -- I know this is a clichee, but --, I'm sorry but anybody with any sense would pack up and leave for Canada. We can avoid that, but only if we stay in the faces of those who are undecided in this election and explain to them what the consequences will be if McCain wins.

Not to mention that in this economy, if the American people were to vote the same party of the last eight years into office all over again, it would be the biggest act of collective masochism the world has ever seen.

Okay; off to take a shower to wash away the self-righteousness..... But it just won't wash awaaaay / No, it doesn't ever wash awaaaayaayayayay, / Darlin', pleaeeeeeeese. To be sung in the style of Bryan Adams, ca. 'Everything I Do I Do It For You'. And that's a wrap.

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* And, also to remind Barack supporters to register to vote ; it's unbelieveably easy and quick to put the requisite paperwork together, thanks to this kickass feature on Barack Obama's Web site. Remember: this election could very easily turn on whether or not a sufficient number of young people show up at the polls on election day. So don't hold back out of politeness: remind your friends; get in their faces and make sure they vote.

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